My elaborate system of news alerts keeps sending me articles about how authorities in Vietnam may reduce the impact of English test scores on admissions to Vietnamese universities. Vietnam is somewhat unique in the world, as such scores are used by domestic students seeking entrance to domestic universities. Apparently, a good test score can give applicants a real edge in this competitive process. But some think that it provides too much of an edge and that, perhaps, other factors should count for more.
IELTS seems to have been the main financial beneficiary of this situation, as they do boffo business in Vietnam. But all of the other testmakers have been drawn to the country, hoping to encourage the use of their tests (where recognized). Or to gain recognition in the first place.
Vietnamese readers might comment on the potential impact that regulatory changes might have on the sales of certain tests in the country. I don’t know enough to comment on that.
Update: IELTS did commission some research on this phenomenon.
But those interested in this sort of thing might look at domestic admissions in Korea from the late 90s to the early 2010s. In that country, universities once offered a “special admissions track” for students with advanced second language proficiency. Basically, this meant students with a good language test score. The track was attractive because it helped students escape the dreaded Korean CSAT test (to some extent). Perhaps you’ve read about that particular madness once or twice.
In practice, advanced second language proficiency was usually proven by reporting a high TOEFL score. Accordingly, ETS made a lot of money selling TOEFL tests in Korea. According to some press reports, Korea was actually the number one market for TOEFL when the iBT version launched back in 2005/2006.
It was all a pretty big deal. During this period, I worked for a hagwon chain (Avalon English) which specialized in teaching TOEFL prep to middle school students. I’ll resist the urge to write about negative washback of tests at this time. But you get the point. And hey… nowadays I also get sent a ton of articles out of Vietnam about the amazing IELTS scores earned by very young children.
Anyway, the authorities in Korea eventually eliminated this special admissions track (for the most part). They even introduced regulations which prevented students from even mentioning TOEFL scores in their application essays. Very quickly, the number of TOEFL tests sold in the country dropped significantly. Korea is now probably the number three market for the TOEFL, behind China and India. Or maybe the number two market, if what I hear from India is accurate.
I’ve lost track of my point, but I think it is worth keeping an eye on domestic admissions in Vietnam for hints about the volumes of certain tests in the medium term.