IDP IELTS is open for business in China!  Test takers can now register for and take the IELTS through IDP Education. The British Council no longer has a monopoly on IELTS testing in this country.  Apparently all the test spots between now and the end of the year sold out in a matter of days.  Remember how I mentioned that it is hard to book seats to take the IELTS (and TOEFL) in China?

A few notes, culled from the Chinese blogosphere:

  1. The fee is 2170 RMB, which is about $298 USD.  That’s the exact same price as taking the test through the British Council.
  2. Testing is currently available in 14 cities across 10 provinces.
  3. There is no interaction with the NEEA when it comes to registering for the test.
  4. IDP apparently offers students one free reschedule.  People like that a lot.
  5. Testing is done all in one day, for the most part.  People like that a lot as well.

The overall reaction seems extremely positive.  Tutoring center staff I’ve talked to report that they’ve already sent dozens of students to register for an IDP-administered IELTS.  Good for IDP. I think this is a big win for that firm. Just what they need after a challenging year (for the whole industry).

I haven’t been able to track down the name of the test center operator that IDP has partnered with.

Shares of IDP Education finished the day at $12.29 a piece.  That’s the lowest they’ve been since March of 2020.  They’re down 43% in the past 12 months, and down 68% since their pandemic high of $38.88.

IDP’s ticker price has always been my personal canary in the coal mine when it comes to legacy English tests.  A few things are worth noting:

  1. Given the most recent regulatory changes in Canada, I feel pretty certain that Duolingo will come to dominate testing for that country in the very near future. I’ve written about this topic at length in recent weeks. To me, this seems like a “break glass in case of emergency” moment for the legacy test makers (and anyone else who depends on Canada-bound students to keep up their volumes).  And yet it appears that the glass remains unbroken.  Tellingly, I still get messages along the lines of “so what do you think of this Duolingo offering?” from people who ought to be better informed. 
  2. The defeat of the caps in Australia has led to increased uncertainty.  Test watchers outside of that country might not understand that the opposition, responsible for the defeat, has argued that the government is not going far enough on this file.  Check out ICEF Monitor’s current lead story for more on this.

Tough times for some testers.  Good times for others.  I’m happy to have something to write about every day.

IDP Education has joined the discussion on “templated responses.” Australasia/Japan head Michael James noted in an article shared to LinkedIn that:

“AI’s role in high-stakes language testing has gained attention recently, particularly after a computer-marked test revised its scoring process to include human evaluators. This change has ignited a debate on this platform about a computer’s ability to identify templated responses.”

James points out that:

“The importance of human marking in high-stakes English language assessment cannot be overstated. IELTS examiners are highly trained language experts who bring a nuanced understanding and contextual awareness that AI systems lack. They can discern not only the grammatical correctness and structural integrity of a response, but also the underlying intent, creativity, and coherence of the content. This real-time, human-centred approach aims to reveal a student’s true abilities and potential.”

His work refers to the “cautiously curious approach” that the IELTS partnership has used in the past to describe its approach to AI.

There is more worth quoting here, but it is probably best to check it out yourself at the link above.

Moving forward, I would love to hear more about the humans who do this sort of work. Not just the humans who rate IELTS responses, but those who rate responses in all sorts of tests. Who are they? What makes them “highly trained experts”? How do they discern X, Y, Z? Are they under pressure to work quickly? These are questions asked by not only score users, but (more important and more frequently) by test takers themselves.

The folks at IELTS published a wonderful article last week week which “benchmarks and examines the scoring and equating practices across different language tests… for the purposes of professional registration and entry into university study leading to professional registration.”

The article is an interesting read.  It describes how institutions often fail to follow the recommendations of test makers when it comes to setting score requirements (that is, they set requirements that are too low) and how institutions don’t seem to make use of score concordance tables provided by test makers when setting requirements for various tests.

The authors note that:

“It is worth considering the mixed messages that differing equivalence scores across tests and institutions sends to international students and education agents. Poor equivalence affects candidates with borderline proficiency, because people can simply locate an easier option via a poorly set equivalence score on another test without needing to improve their underlying English skills. Furthermore, poor test score equivalency means that some tests will appear better to take than others.”

And:

“To set a score too low may have consequences, because it can mislead individuals into believing they have the right skillsets to complete their study or to safely practice as professionals.”

The article goes on to talk about how low score requirements can impact the families and communities of test takers.  It discusses how public safety can be affected by low test scores.  It also mentions how low score requirements might cause people to lose confidence in their nation’s public institutions.

Indeed,  it is noted that when institutions fail to reliably use language test scores “social order may be undermined.”

Can this be avoided?  Yes, of course.  The researchers note that:

“There is an opportunity for IELTS to lead the way, by linking with other test providers to provide a united front on what test scores to use and how to equate scores on different tests, and to produce the same equivalence table which would be displayed on each test-developer’s website. The equivalence could be jointly reviewed annually to ensure agreement between tests is met.”

More interestingly, the authors suggest that IELTS be switched to a 0-90 scale (increasing at 10-point increments), which would be easier for institutions to understand and equate to other tests.

Eight months ago, I posted a short item here predicting that within 5-10 years, the big three commonwealth governments would begin accepting at-home English tests for visa purposes.  It remains one of the most widely-read things I’ve written.

With the termination of the SDS in Canada, I suppose my prediction has arrived ahead of schedule.  As things stand, Canada-bound students can now get a study permit without visiting a test center.

Maybe that’s not a huge deal, but the termination of the SDS also means that all tests are now on a level playing field.  Students are now free to pick any test that is accepted by their target school, without consideration of how it will impact the issuance of their study permit.

Previously, students opting for entrance via the SDS program took an IELTS, TOEFL, CAEL, CELPIP or PTE test.  And now?  They have a buffet of options to choose from.  Take the University of Toronto, which is apparently a nice school.  Undergrad applicants can meet language fluency requirements by submitting scores from the following tests:  C1 Advanced, C2 Proficiency, DET, COPE, IELTS, PTE and TOEFL.  They can also submit an IB literature result, or some qualifications from the UK that I’m not familiar with.  Whatever their choice, it won’t affect their study permit.

Yes, I know that technically this was always an option, as the SDS could be bypassed in favor of the slow stream, but few students in the key sending markets went that route.

Clearly, then, this change represents yet another challenge for the legacy testing firms.  But it also represents a challenge for Pearson and Prometric (developer of the CAEL and CELPIP tests). In my view it will be very difficult to convince a student in China to pay $300 to take the TOEFL or $310 to take the PTE when the DET costs $65 and will get them to Canada just as easily.  Likewise, it will be hard to convince a student in India to take a 165 minute IELTS when a 60 minute DET is just as good.

And decades of shabby customer service from legacy testing firms has left them without enough goodwill to convince test takers to stick with them during these trying times.

Some may wonder how legacy test makers will approach this challenge.  One strategy might be to pray daily that IRCC introduces a language test requirement into the study permit system, rendering moot all of the above.  That may happen.  Another strategy may be to focus mostly on testing students bound for graduate programs, where the DET doesn’t have widespread acceptance.  That could be a smart approach.

A more ambitious strategy would be to take this as an opportunity to innovate in terms of test content and item development.

Hear me out.

One reason why items on legacy tests seem to be set in stone is that the test makers are beholden to whatever research and validity studies they have submitted to gain acceptance by governments.  Any drastic changes to test design can result in that acceptance being revoked.  That’s why Australia’s Department of Home Affairs temporarily stopped accepting TOEFL scores starting in July of last year.

But with the shuttering of the SDS and the winding down of the SELT program in the UK, this isn’t as big a concern as it used to be.

The folks at ETS have little to lose and much to gain from reinventing the TOEFL as a cheaper, shorter and more consumer friendly test.  Doing so will no longer impact their relationship with IRCC.  And since the TOEFL isn’t accepted in the UK, they have nothing to worry about there.  Yeah, it would cost them Australia (again) but I don’t think the test is widely used by students heading to that country anyway.  And, heck, the aforementioned changes would likely increase use of the test among US-bound students.

The IELTS partnership is also looking at a brave new world right now, though changes to that test would be trickier to implement. Though they are in the same boat as ETS as far as Canada is concerned, they have much more to lose in Australia and (in the short term) in the UK.  But the HOELT is coming, and in a few years the IELTS partners will find themselves in a position where innovation is much easier to pull off.

With all that said, there is a fourth possible strategy.  That is, of course, to do nothing.

I ventured into Seoul a few days ago to visit the Appenzeller/Noble Memorial Museum.  The museum is housed in a building, constructed in 1916, that was once home to Korea’s first “western style” school.  It’s a pleasant hidden gem in the city, and admission is free.

Across the lawn, I was happy to spot the Korean offices of the British Council!  It seems fitting that the British Council occupies space in what used to be the grounds of this historic school (which still exists and is the BC’s landlord, I believe).

You can go to these offices to take your IELTS test.  They also run programs for children, and distribute literature that extols the virtues of a nice British education.  I was also very happy to spot a Poppy Appeal donation box, perhaps the only one in Seoul.

Canada has ended the Student Direct Stream (SDS).  This program was introduced by IRCC in 2018 to provide expedited study permit processing from select countries, including the key sending countries of India and China.  

Applicants opting for the SDS route were subject to requirements beyond those in the regular non-SDS study permit application.  These requirements included a language test result.

Moving forward, all students must apply through the regular study permit stream.

Notably, the regular study permit stream does not require a language test score.  It merely requires a letter of acceptance from an institution.  Institutions set their own language test requirements and issue the LOA once applicants have fulfilled them.

In terms of language testing, one imagines that this change will generate business for Duolingo’s DET, which is widely accepted by schools across the country but was not accepted for use in the SDS stream.  It may reduce volumes of more expensive tests like the TOEFL, PTE and IELTS, scores from which were accepted as part of the SDS stream.

I suppose, though, that one should keep an eye on the specific requirements of the student permit program.  Perhaps a language test requirement will be added in the future.

Note that the Nigeria Student Express program has also been eliminated.  It was similar to the SDS.

This PIE News article by Polly Nash has a ton of relevant details re: IDP’s move to begin direct testing in China.  It notes:

  1. IELTS testing in China is valued at about $380 million, or about 40% of the global IELTS value.
  2. Morgan Stanley estimates that about 850,000 IELTS tests are taken in China each year.
  3. Morgan Stanley further estimates that IDP could grab 40% of the Chinese IELTS market by 2028.
  4. IDP will outsource test center operation to an established third party.

If the 850,000 number is accurate, China represents about 50% of all IELTS testing done by the British Council, as their most recent annual report noted the delivery of 1.8 million tests.  This means that competition in this key market could have a significant impact on the British Council.

Outsourcing the test centers could be costly in the short term, but I’m sure IDP could supplement a third party network with “self-operated” centers.  That’s something ETS has pursued in China in recent years.

IDP Education shares are trading at $13.45 as I write this.  Shares are down 32% since the beginning of the year, and are down quite a lot more from their pandemic high of $38.88.

It isn’t necessary to describe once again the challenges that IDP faces, as they are already well known. That said, it is worth taking a moment to write about a potential bright spot that hasn’t been sufficiently covered elsewhere.

According to IDP’s most recent annual report, the company plans to begin “direct testing” of IELTS in China in the near future. That is, they plan to take registrations and operate IELTS test centers around the country.

It may come as a surprise to some readers to learn that IDP doesn’t do those things at the present time. Instead, the British Council has a monopoly on IELTS testing in China. Per an agreement between them and IDP, IDP is paid a flat-rate royalty for every administration of the IELTS that is carried out in the country.  I don’t know what that fee is.

In most other countries, IDP and British Council compete with each other when it comes to delivering IELTS (except for India, where IDP has enjoyed a monopoly since buying out the British Council’s operations in 2022).

What makes the move to direct testing particularly exciting is the fact that during peak testing periods, some students find it hard to book spots at IELTS test centers (and TOEFL test centers, for that matter).  According to anecdotal reports that have been shared with me, test takers sometimes resort to paying third parties to quickly to book spots at test centers as soon as they become available.  Other times they travel outside China to take tests.  You’ll recall reports in the Korean press a few months ago about “exam tourism” to that country.  Said the Chosun Daily at that time:

“The British Council, which administers IELTS, noted that they have observed a significant number of Chinese expeditionary candidates coming to Korea recently. Although they do not have statistics sorted by nationality, it is estimated that as many as half of the 30,000 people who take IELTS in Korea annually could be Chinese.”

I’ve been told that Malaysia is a popular destination for Chinese test takers as well.  Before the war, people went as far as Moscow to take tests.

This suggests to me that if IDP enters the market they won’t have any trouble filling seats at test centers.

Beyond that, a few other points are worth mentioning:

  1. Official numbers are not available to me, but I think it’s safe to say that the IELTS is the most popular test of its type in China, having surpassed the TOEFL in total test volume some years ago.  This is mostly because of the rise of Canada and Australia as study destinations, but also because the IELTS is a very attractive test for individuals in China.  The option of taking the IELTS on paper remains quite popular in China, and that’s something that competing testmakers don’t offer.  Test takers are also drawn to the test because of the 19 prep books published by Cambridge Press.  Again, that’s something that competing tests can’t match. People like the IELTS. When IDP enters the market, they will have a customer base that already appreciates their product.
  2. As discussed recently on the ICEF Monitor Podcast, the slowing of economic growth in China, coupled with high youth unemployment, may create opportunities for firms involved in the study abroad business.  Already, we’ve seen that young people in China are more likely than before to stay in school instead of entering the job market right after their undergraduate studies. This may translate into an uptick in individuals considering the option of studying abroad.  Of course, this could create more demand for the IELTS in China, even as demand shrinks in the key market of India. Because of the specific schools Canada-bound students often target, they may be less impacted by regulatory changes than students in other markets.  Again, this could keep demand for the IELTS high.
  3. If done quickly, the establishment of a test center network across China would give IDP a truly global presence, and could cement their place as a frontrunner to win the second lot (delivery) for the new HOELT test.
  4. The cost of taking the IELTS in China from the British Council is about $460 AUD.  According to IDP’s most recent annual report their worldwide average fee is currently $306. Direct testing will certainly increase their average fee.

Anyhow.  All of the above assumes that IDP Education has found a test center partner and have taken care of whatever obligations they might have to the NEEA.  Those two things could, of course, present challenges in the short term.

I urge everyone interested in testing to keep an eye on China.  It’s easy to miss key details since this particular social network isn’t allowed to operate in the country… but it remains critically important to the plans of all the testing firms.  More important than some people might realize!

Below are photos of the endcap displays of TOEFL and IELTS books at the big Kyobo Books location near Seoul City Hall.  Even more books of both types are found on the store’s shelves.  Eagle-eyed readers will spot a mixture of both official and third party publications.

When trying to account for why certain tests are popular in the East Asian market, it is really important to pay attention to the amount of prep materials on the market, especially (but not only) collections of practice tests.

To some extent, here in Korea TOEFL and IELTS have avoided the headwinds they face in other markets because there is such a healthy ecosystem of prep materials available.  The PTE is doing okay here, but it isn’t challenging IELTS to the same extent that it is in India.  Likewise, while the DET has a lot of fans here, it hasn’t supplanted the TOEFL as a test for America-bound students like it has in Europe.

People here want to take tests that they can prepare for on their own.  Young people in Korea spend a lot of time studying for tests, and are pretty good at breaking them down to their component parts and mastering them bit by bit.  But that can only be done when they have access to a ton of super accurate study materials. Reputable third party publishers here are trusted to produce practice tests that are 99% similar to the real thing. That’s one reason why some people here are sticking with the legacy tests.

In markets with less of this sort of stuff, there is less reason to stick with the legacy tests.

In part this explains the high volumes (in Korea) of somewhat older English tests like the G-TELP, TOEIC and OPIc, all of which remain extremely popular in the region.  Surprisingly so.

Test makers should keep this in mind.  They should also remember that the legacy tests can count on third party publishers to crank out a steady stream of materials on their own, but upstarts might have to shoulder some of the burden themselves.

(For the record, I didn’t spot any PTE books and I’m not sure any are available from Korea publishers at all.  I didn’t spot any DET books either, though the influential “Siwon School” company does have a line on the market.)

The Chinese market deserves a post all of its own.  So… I think I’ll save my thoughts on that one for a later date.

IDP Education held its annual general meeting yesterday.  Shares slid 7.44% in response.  Here’s a PDF summary provided by IDP.  Most of the news is old news, previously shared in the annual report published a little while ago.

If you are curious, the precise number of IELTS tests delivered by IDP in FY2024 was 1,584,100, a decline of 18% compared to FY2023.  They report 3.98 million IELTS tests being taken in total.  That seems a bit high, but perhaps the British Council is doing better than I imagine.

Nothing is mentioned in the presentation file about IDP’s plans for direct testing in China, which I am really bullish on.  I think they represent a really fantastic opportunity for IDP and will make life easier for learners in China.  I’ll write more on that topic later, I suppose.

The PIE News has some useful numbers regarding which tests were used by students entering the UK for studies in the 23/24 enrollment cycle.  The numbers come from Enroly, which apparently processes a third of all international student applications for the UK.

It reports that about 65% of students took an English to show they met the language requirements for a student visa.

About 34 percent of students used an IELTS score to meet those requirements.  About 8 percent used a PTE score.  About 10 percent used a score from one of the other SELT tests.  About 13 percent used a score from a non-SELT test.

TOEFL and Duolingo are the biggest non-SELT tests, but there are others.