Below are a couple of images from a recent presentation given by ETS’s Spiros Papageorgiou regarding the new TOEFL/IELTS comparability study.

It is interesting to note that an overall IELTS band score of 7 is comparable to a TOEFL score of 91.  But while that IELTS band score of 7 is linked to a CEFR level of C1, that TOEFL score of 91 is linked to a CEFR level of B2.

The same phenomenon can be observed at lower band levels, as is highlighted in the attached slide. This is referred to as “different CEFR interpretations.”

I had planned to write an article about how the new score concordance might affect cut scores in light of the fact that schools often use either their TOEFL or IELTS requirements as a sort of anchor against which other score requirements are adjusted.  But perhaps schools might choose to stick with CEFR interpretations (which haven’t changed) as the basis of their score requirements.

I’ve also included a second slide which reminded viewers that “a language test is not intended to measure abilities beyond language proficiency.”

The Guardian is reporting that the British Council might have to close up shop in 40 to 60 countries in the near future.  The organization has been asked to draw up two sets of spending plans – one in which it receives no increase in funding from the British government, and another in which it receives 2% less than at present.  Both scenarios would result in a significant scaling back of operations.

This is quite sad.  The British Council is many things. To me, it is a testing firm which does good work and gives back to the communities it operates in.  More than other testing firms.

It has been argued that cuts to the funding of the British Council might have a negative impact on the UK’s soft power and national security.

I’m unsure of how this might affect the BC’s delivery of the IELTS test. Here in Seoul tests are delivered both at BC’s self-operated “headquarters” and at a test center located in a tutoring center. I suppose other countries are similar.

As has been discussed on the blog a few times, the financial situation of the British Council has been recently impacted by a couple of things: a large loan taken out during the pandemic and the sale of its lucrative IELTS operations in India to IDP Education.

Shares of IDP Education Ltd remain in freefall, now trading at 3.59 a piece.  I think they are priced at just a few more cents than at the end of their first day of trading, back in November of 2015.

The Financial Review described the firm as a “dumpster fire” a few days ago, noting that former CEO Andrew Barkla “must be relieved he sold nearly everything that wasn’t nailed down when the company was in happier times.”

That may be an overstatement, but I chuckled.

I know that student placements are a bigger concern, but it could be worth looking at historic IELTS volumes:

• FY 2016:  857,000
• FY 2017:  909,800
• FY 2018:  1,141,200 (IELTS on computer re-introduced)
• FY 2019:  1,280,000
• FY 2020:  1,095,000
• FY 2021:  1,150,000
• FY 2022:  1,900,000 (IDP took over BC’s India testing)
• FY 2023:  1,930,000
• FY 2024:  1,580,000
• FY 2025:  1,264,000 to 1,295,600 (estimated)

Remember, of course, that the above numbers don’t include tests administered by the British Council.

For those who are interested in the business of English testing, it is worth taking a second look at Table 2 in the new IELTS/TOEFL score concordance.  It lists various first languages/first language groups and what percentage of the overall test taker population they made up back in 2022.  If nothing else, they confirm some long standing assumptions about each test.

Note how 35.4% of TOEFL takers in 2022 used Chinese as a first language.  It has long been known that China is TOEFL’s biggest market, but this number is higher than I would have guessed… even if we keep in mind that plenty of these folks took the test outside of China.

People with a first language in the Indian group made up 13.2% of all TOEFL testers.  That’s a bit lower than I assumed.

Korean speakers made up 7.8% of TOEFL testers, and Japanese speakers made up 6.4%.  That’s really something.  China/Korea/Japan has always been the heartland of TOEFL… but a combined 50% of testers is startling.  No wonder ETS is trying real hard to diversify their test taker population.

Spanish speakers made up 8.6% of TOEFL testers.  This is due, in part, to the test’s traditional popularity in Mexico and in key South American markets like Colombia, Chile and Peru.

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Meanwhile, the chart shows us that 39.6% of IELTS test takers in 2022 spoke a language in the Indian group.  Obviously India is critically important for the IELTS partnership.

Chinese speakers made up 15.8% of IELTS test takers.  Given that IELTS-A (probably) has roughly a 3x larger worldwide footprint than TOEFL we might take this as a suggestion that IELTS is now bigger than TOEFL in China.

The third biggest language group among IELTS test takers was the South-East Asia group, representing 8.2% of all tests.  Needless to say, I’ve written a ton in recent weeks about how important Vietnam is to this test.

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Note that it looks like the concordance study did not include test takers who listed English as their first language.  Such testers make up a decent amount of each test’s overall population.

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It isn’t quite the same thing but, for reference, here are the top countries for the Duolingo English Test, based on test taker ID.

• India 18.91%
• Mainland China 15.88%
• Canada 4.35%
• South Korea 3.51%
• Brazil 3.42%
• United States 3.34%
• Mexico 3.12%
• Indonesia 2.78%
• France 2.09%
• Pakistan 1.94%

The UK White Paper on “Restoring Control over the Immigration System” hit a few days ago. Most of the content is outside my wheelhouse, but it did contain some important updates re: English tests. Specifically:

• We will increase language requirements for Skilled Workers and workers where a language requirement already applies from B1 to B2 (Independent User) levels, in accordance with the Common European Framework for Reference for Languages (CEFR).
  
• It is important that we ensure better integration and consistency in our requirements of family members across the immigration system so we will introduce a new English language requirement for all adult dependants of workers and students at level A1 (Basic User) to align to spousal and partner routes and will work towards increasing this requirement over time. 
• We want individuals to improve their English language skills over time as they continue their stay in the UK. We will introduce requirements to demonstrate progression to level A2 (Basic User) for any visa extension, and B2 (Independent User) for settlement. 
• We will increase our existing requirements for settlement across the majority of immigration routes from B1 to B2 (Independent User).

The Labour government is seeking to reduce migration to the UK. Needless to say, less migration = less testing. But a few things are worth noting:

1. Increasing requirements for work visas (and others) from B1 to B2 will lead to more re-testers. Some people study hard to reach their test score target. Other people just retest (again and again and again) until they hit it. That will be lucrative for testing firms.
2. The requirement that dependents prove they are at A1 will prove lucrative for testing companies. Remember that the A1 “life skills” tests take about 25 minutes to complete and generally cost about 170 GBP. These must be a pretty sweet deal for the test companies.
3. The requirement that certain individuals demonstrate progression from A1 to B1 may generate even more demand for these short and expensive tests.
4. Higher requirements might cause more people to consider tests that are popularly perceived to be easier than IELTS.
5. How much does it cost to administer a 25 minute test? There may be an opportunity for one of the SELT providers to undercut their competitors and grab a big part of the market. But obviously that won’t happen.

It is also worth considering that by the time these changes are implemented, we might be in the HOELT era. The HOELT tender indicates that it will include testing at the A1 and A2 levels.

To convert IELTS to TOEFL scores, consult the new chart from 2025.  Many websites still use the now obsolete 2010 chart.  To learn even more about converting scores, make sure to read the actual research.

Here’s a copy of the score conversion chart published by ETS:

Institutions might like this slightly more precise chart from the research report which covers all possible TOEFL scores:

ETS also publishes a chart to convert IELTS reading scores to TOEFL reading scores:

And a chart to convert IELTS listening scores to TOEFL listening scores:

And a chart to convert IELTS speaking scores to TOEFL speaking scores:

And a chart to convert between IELTS writing scores to TOEFL writing scores:

Institutions should always keep in mind what ETS and the IELTS partnership says about setting score requirements: “score users are advised not to rely solely on published score equivalences in making their decisions. They should weigh evidence from additional sources where feasible.”

ETS and the IELTS partnership have published new score concordance tables for the IELTS Academic and TOEFL tests.  These replace the results of an earlier concordance study published in 2010.

Do check out the link above.  I suppose that a few things are worth noting about the results:

1. The study was completed using test results from August 2023 to March 2024, so it reflects changes to the TOEFL introduced in July 2023.  It was completed as part of the Australian Department of Home Affairs’ REOI re: English tests.
   
2. The score comparisons are noticeably different from those published in 2010.  Score users who set requirements based on the 2010 charts may wish to update their requirements.  But, as the report notes, “score users are advised not to rely solely on published score equivalences in making their decisions. They should weigh evidence from additional sources where feasible.”
3. Score users who based their requirements on the 2010 charts may consider adjusting high-end requirements and low-end requirements in different directions, if you get what I mean.  For instance, back in 2010 an overall IELTS score of 7.5 was listed as comparable to a TOEFL score of 102 to 109.  Today it is listed as comparable to a TOEFL score of 100 to 107.  Meanwhile, in 2010 an overall IELTS score of 6.0 was listed as comparable to a TOEFL score of 60 to 78.  Today it is listed as comparable to a TOEFL score of 67 to 80.  This phenomenon is particularly noticeable if you look specifically at the listening and reading comparisons.
4. I’m curious about the distribution of TOEFL reading and listening scores.  Let me know if you have any thoughts.
5. There is some fascinating data in here about the first language populations of each test.  We can learn that in 2022, the top first languages/first language families for TOEFL test takers were: Chinese (35.4%), Indian (13.2%), Spanish (8.6%), Korean (7.8%) and Japanese (6.8%).  For IELTS, the top first languages were:  Indian (39.6%), Chinese (15.8%), South-East Asian (8.2%), Arabic (5.4%), Spanish (1.8%).  Those who reported using some “other” first language sood at 12.5% of TOEFL test takers and 23.3% of IELTS test takers.

Fun fact:  of the 937 test takers included in this study, not a single one scored 8.5 or 9.0 in the IELTS writing section.