I posted the following on LinkedIn last week, and IELTS tutors piled in to my page to insist that it will never happen, and that people are proud to take the IELTS instead of some other test. Look, I could be wrong. But I must note that no TOEFL tutors came to say that. TOEFL tutors already know what the Duolingo English Test has done to their business model. And the smart TOEFL tutors are planning for when the NABP starts accepting the Duolingo Test.
A final observation re: market share.
In the relatively near future, the Duolingo English Test will likely be accepted by governments around the world for visas and study permits. This change won’t happen in 2024 or 2025, but it will probably happen within the next five years. Certainly within the next decade. When this occurs, demand for the IELTS, PTE-A and TOEFL tests will decline precipitously.
Few people will opt for a $250 test when a $65 test is accepted by the same authorities and is just as respected (or more respected) by the universities they wish to apply to.
As I indicated earlier, I assume that work on the next-gen IELTS and TOEFL tests is already underway. If it isn’t… now is the time to break the glass and get started on tests that can compete. Remember that it takes quite a long time to develop a test – the DET was in development for more than six years before it went mainstream in 2020, and the TOEFL iBT was developed over about twelve years before it launched in 2005.