This PIE News article by Polly Nash has a ton of relevant details re: IDP’s move to begin direct testing in China. It notes:
- IELTS testing in China is valued at about $380 million, or about 40% of the global IELTS value.
- Morgan Stanley estimates that about 850,000 IELTS tests are taken in China each year.
- Morgan Stanley further estimates that IDP could grab 40% of the Chinese IELTS market by 2028.
- IDP will outsource test center operation to an established third party.
If the 850,000 number is accurate, China represents about 50% of all IELTS testing done by the British Council, as their most recent annual report noted the delivery of 1.8 million tests. This means that competition in this key market could have a significant impact on the British Council.
Outsourcing the test centers could be costly in the short term, but I’m sure IDP could supplement a third party network with “self-operated” centers. That’s something ETS has pursued in China in recent years.