I would be remiss if I didn’t link to Nicholas Cuthbert‘s video from DETcon London, since it generated quite a lot of spirited discussion. Notably, Nicholas describes Duolingo as “ahead of the game.” And also says: “Duolingo are winning.”
Hyperbole? Perhaps. Duolingo is certainly on a winning trajectory in terms of acceptance in key receiving markets, market share, brand awareness, test taker engagement, use of technology, and baffling social media campaigns. But it is important to note that IELTS still does more test administrations than everyone else combined. There are still people paying $530 to take an IELTS test. IELTS will be the market leader for many years to come. Accordingly, there is still plenty of time for the IELTS partnership to develop a “next-gen” IELTS that eats Duolingo’s lunch.
Heck, Pearson is hoping to do just that in about four months.
Recent messaging from the British Council and Cambridge University Press & Assessment suggests that the IELTS partners plan to double-down on their more traditional approach to assessment. It seems like they don’t plan to change the way they assess students, but instead encourage score users to more carefully consider which tests they choose to accept.
Regardless, I’m convinced that Cambridge has got top people working on… something. Check out yesterday’s article in TESOL Quarterly, for instance.
A well-informed industry watcher recently expressed some incredulity that LLMs haven’t totally disrupted the high-stakes language testing sector. He was shocked that people still pay hundreds of dollars to take a test. My response was that this stuff takes time. Everyone knows that university governance is a slow process. Immigration regulations are even slower. But things might finally be coming to a head – coincidentally both ETS and Pearson announced the existence of their “next-gen” (my term) tests at NAFSA a few weeks ago. Things are moving a tiny bit faster now.
By the way, you must get to one of these DETcon events if you get the chance. They are a charming combination of research presentations, community building and Duolingo’s trademark irreverence. I understand that at the most recent Pittsburgh-based event, Duolingo CEO Luis von Ahn was subjected to an unannounced Yinzer Test. Not sure what that is, but I suspect it is similar to a Voight-Kampff Test. In any case, the results have not been shared publicly.